I am interested in a variety of problems in population dynamics, with most of my work in mathematical epidemiology.

Metapopulation models and the spatial and temporal spread of infectious diseases

Since early work with Pauline van den Driessche (Arino & van den Driessche, 2003), I have been interested in the dynamics of infectious diseases in metapopulations. These are systems of connected populations, where individuals can move between populations.

Introduction of pathogens

I became interested in this problem during the COVID-19 pandemic, as I realised at the time that this obligatory step in the spread of infectious diseases was not well understood. I have since worked on this problem with a number of students and collaborators, both for diseases of humans but also for diseases of animals.

Mathematical ecology and mathematical biology

Besides my main interests in mathematical epidemiology, I am also interested in a number of problems in mathematical ecology and mathematical biology. Altogether, I greatly value the modelling step and the interdisciplinary nature of the work in this stage.

Training in mathematical epidemiology and modelling

Since I was a postdoc, I have been involved in training students in mathematical epidemiology and modelling. In recent years, many of my training activities have involved teaching in various places in Africa. I also have developed a number of online resources for training in mathematical epidemiology and modelling, which are available on my website.

Current trainees

  • Adriana-Stefania Ciupeanu. Postdoctoral fellow, Departments of Mathematics.
  • Ghazale Farjam. Ph.D. (IIS), Department of Mathematics. Former VADA student
  • Md Mehadi Hasan. Ph.D. (IIS), Departments of Mathematics and Statistics.
  • Solomon Mensah. M.Sc. student, Department of Mathematics. Co-supervision with K.-L. Liao.
  • Felix Vo. Undergraduate student, .

Recent Publications (Past 5 Years)

Dynamics of infectious disease spread between transportation hubs and surrounding communities

R. Mosleh , Mina Shafadeh , Bushra Majeed , Julien Arino , Abbas Ghasemi , Edward W. Thommes , A. Asgary , H. Hui , Jianhong Wu
Infectious Disease Modelling 2026-06-01

Dose-limited interventions in an epidemiological model

Annour Saad Abdramane , H. Djimramadji , M. Haggar , P. M. T. Djomegni , Julien Arino
2026-05-17
1 citations

Within-host immunology to age-of-infection epidemiology via a virtual cohort

Julien Arino , Morgan Craig , Clotilde Djuikem , Kang-Ling Liao , Stéphanie Portet
2026-05-16
0 citations

Deterministic and Stochastic Infection Dynamics in a Population Subject to Stress

Clotilde Djuikem , Julien Arino
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2026-02-06

Mathematical Modelling Techniques

Harald Krogstad , Mohammed Yiha Dawed , P. T. Tchepmo Djomegni , J. Arino
2026-01-30

Dynamics of bovine tuberculosis transmission in mixed herds in Chad.

H. Djimramadji , J. Arino , P. M. T. Djomegni , M. Haggar
Mathematical Biosciences 2025-07-07

A metapopulation model for the spread of cholera

Abdramane Saad , J. Arino , P. M. T. Djomegni , M. Haggar
2025-05-22
1 citations

A model for cholera with infectiousness of deceased individuals and vaccination

Annour Saad Abdramane , J. Arino , P. M. T. Djomegni , M. Haggar
2025-04-10
1 citations

Threshold-based impulsive biocontrol for coffee leaf rust

Clotilde Djuikem , Julien Arino
2025-04-01
1 citations

Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling

Jhoana P. Romero–Leiton , E. K. Laison , Rowin Alfaro , E. J. Parmley , Julien Arino , Kamal R. Acharya , Bouchra R. Nasri
Infectious Disease Modelling 2024-12-01
4 citations

MetaCast: A package for broadCASTing epidemiological and ecological models over META-populations

Martin Grunnill , Julien Arino , Abbas Ghasemi , Edward W. Thommes , Jianhong Wu
Journal of Open Source Software 2024-07-17
1 citations

Evaluating infectious disease outbreak potential and mitigation effectiveness on cruise ships.

R. Mosleh , Mortaza Baky-Haskuee , Abbas Ghasemi , Martin Grunnill , Julien Arino , M. Tofighi , Edward W. Thommes , Jianhong Wu
Journal of Theoretical Biology 2024-06-01
4 citations

Transmission of Multiple Pathogens Across Species.

Clotilde Djuikem , Julien Arino
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2024-05-30

Is SARS-CoV-2 elimination or mitigation best? Regional and disease characteristics determine the recommended strategy

M. Martignoni , Julien Arino , A. Hurford
Royal Society Open Science 2024-02-07
9 citations

Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report

Marta C. Nunes , Edward W. Thommes , Holger Fröhlich , A. Flahault , Julien Arino , M. Baguelin , M. Biggerstaff , Gaston Bizel-Bizellot , R. Borchering , Giacomo Cacciapaglia , S. Cauchemez , Alex Barbier-Chebbah , Carsten Claussen , C. Choirat , M. Cojocaru , C. Commaille-Chapus , C. Hon , J. Kong , Nicolas Lambert , K. Lauer , Thorsten Lehr , Cédric Mahé , V. Maréchal , A. Mebarki , S. Moghadas , R. Niehus , L. Opatowski , F. Parino , Gery Pruvost , Andreas Schuppert , R. Thiébaut , Andrea Thomas-Bachli , Cécile Viboud , Jianhong Wu , P. Crépey , Laurent Coudeville
Infectious Disease Modelling 2024-02-01
13 citations

Insights into B Cell and Antibody Kinetics Against SARS-CoV-2 Variants Using Mathematical Modelling

S. Farhang-Sardroodi , X. Deng , Stéphanie Portet , Julien Arino , Morgan Craig
bioRxiv 2023-11-12

Mathematical Modelling of the First HIV/ZIKV Co-infection Cases in Colombia and Brazil

Jhoana P. Romero–Leiton , I. Sekkak , Julien Arino , Bouchra R. Nasri
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2023-09-21
0 citations

Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol

Jhoana P. Romero–Leiton , K. Acharya , Jane Parmley , Julien Arino , Bouchra R. Nasri
BMJ Open 2023-09-01
5 citations

SARS-CoV-2 in Nursing Homes: Analysis of Routine Surveillance Data in Four European Countries

T. Delory , Julien Arino , Paul-Emile Haÿ , Vincent Klotz , P. Böelle
Aging and Disease 2023-04-01
1 citations

Modelling disease mitigation at mass gatherings: A case study of COVID-19 at the 2022 FIFA World Cup

Martin Grunnill , Julien Arino , Zachary McCarthy , N. Bragazzi , Laurent Coudeville , Edward W. Thommes , A. Amiche , Abbas Ghasemi , L. Bourouiba , M. Tofighi , A. Asgary , Mortaza Baky-Haskuee , Jianhong Wu
medRxiv 2023-03-29
5 citations

A model for the early COVID-19 outbreak in China with case detection and behavioural change

Julien Arino , khalid el hail , M. Khaladi , A. Ouhinou
Biomath 2023-01-27
2 citations

Journal of Theoretical Biology

A. Hurford , M. Martignoni , J. Loredo-Osti , F. Anokye , Julien Arino , B. Husain , B. Gaas , James Watmough
2023
13 citations

Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic

Julien Arino , E. Milliken
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 2022-09-23
2 citations

Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area

P. Yuan , Y. Tan , Liu Yang , E. Aruffo , N. Ogden , J. Bélair , J. Heffernan , Julien Arino , James Watmough , H. Carabin , Huaiping Zhu
Journal of Medical Virology 2022-09-11
40 citations

Modeling vaccination and control strategies for outbreaks of monkeypox at gatherings

P. Yuan , Y. Tan , L. Yang , E. Aruffo , N. Ogden , J. Bélair , Julien Arino , J. Heffernan , James Watmough , H. Carabin , H. Zhu
Frontiers in Public Health 2022-08-16
21 citations

Pandemic modelling for regions implementing an elimination strategy

A. Hurford , M. Martignoni , J. C. Loredo-Osti , Francis Anokye , Julien Arino , B. Husain , B. Gaas , J. Watmough
medRxiv 2022-07-18
9 citations

Mathematical modelling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada

E. Aruffo , P. Yuan , Y. Tan , E. Gatov , I. Moyles , J. Bélair , James Watmough , S. Collier , Julien Arino , H. Zhu
BMC Public Health 2022-07-15
20 citations

Bistability in deterministic and stochastic SLIAR-type models with imperfect and waning vaccine protection

Julien Arino , E. Milliken
Journal of Mathematical Biology 2022-06-01
17 citations

Efficacy of a “stay-at-home” policy on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Toronto, Canada: a mathematical modelling study

P. Yuan , Juan Li , E. Aruffo , E. Gatov , Qi Li , Tingting Zheng , N. Ogden , B. Sander , Jane Heffernan , S. Collier , Y. Tan , Jun Li , Julien Arino , J. Bélair , James Watmough , J. Kong , I. Moyles , Huaiping Zhu
CMAJ Open 2022-04-01
12 citations

Disease transmission and mass gatherings: a case study on meningococcal infection during Hajj

L. Coudeville , A. Amiche , Ashrafur Rahman , Julien Arino , B. Tang , Ombeline Jollivet , A. Dogu , E. Thommes , Jianhong Wu
BMC Infectious Diseases 2022-03-22
16 citations

Estimating social contacts in mass gatherings for disease outbreak prevention and management: case of Hajj pilgrimage

M. Tofighi , A. Asgary , Ghassem Tofighi , M. Najafabadi , Julien Arino , A. Amiche , Ashrafur Rahman , Zachary McCarthy , Nicola Luigi Bragazzi , E. Thommes , L. Coudeville , Martin Grunnill , L. Bourouiba , Jianhong Wu
Tropical Diseases, Travel Medicine and Vaccines 2022-01-17
7 citations